But the immediate question posed by anyone with a 401(k) is: How
will the market fare this coming year? Grantham reminds us of the
predictability of presidential cycles, which reveal a "remarkable"
set of data. Historically, during the first year of a presidency,
the market is up very slightly. In the second, it's down
significantly; in the third, it rockets upward; and in the fourth,
it's up more marginally.
That kind of pattern isn't random. As they start to face reelection
prospects in their third year, administrations tend to goose jobs,
cut interest rates, and spend the cash necessary to make sure the
economy is humming when voters go to the polls. And here's the good
news: We'll soon be entering the third year of the younger Bush's
second term. If historical patterns hold, that could mean a
pleasant year for investors, although Grantham doesn't recommend
you count on this. "In the end," he says, "value is more important
than these technical indicators."
Of course, in Grantham's view, the fundamentals don't warrant such
a powerful bull run. It almost pains him to admit it. But he's
enough of a realist to know that pure reason doesn't always drive
the markets. "You don't get rich fighting Year Three," he quips.
The Real World:
Thinking and Investing Globally
Grantham loves to make his investors rich - investors who
reportedly include longtime political foes
John Kerry and Dick
Cheney (although the tight-lipped company declines to discuss its
clients). His firm has outperformed the
market for seven consecutive years.
That's partly thanks to Grantham's global perspective, which helps
him spot opportunities around the world. And that stems from his
upbringing: A native of England, he studied at the University of
Sheffield before making his way to
Harvard Business School. As a
self-styled
mid-Atlantic personality - one whose stubborn English
accent remains, if only in watered-down form - he sees U.S. stocks
as only one piece of a much larger puzzle.