The Market Wizard
by Chris TaylorThat instinctive caution has led many to tag Grantham a
"permabear," someone who's always pessimistic about the markets.
He's not a fan of the term, though. A worrier, maybe: He does think
we're in the middle of a long-term bear market, one that started in
2000 and that may not end until 2010, at the earliest. But
according to Grantham, he's just calling the market as he sees it.
If an asset class is in a bubble, he'll say so. And right now, a
lot of different assets are looking awfully pricey. Stocks, bonds,
real estate - generally speaking, all are valued higher than they
should be.
Looking Ahead: Where to Place Your Bets
That's not to say there aren't wise investments to be made, says
Grantham. One of the best at the moment? Boring old cash.
Fixed-income investments (bonds) are also looking more attractive
than they have been, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
are fairly valued. Emerging markets - developing countries like
India,
China,
Brazil, and so on - are probably the best long-term
bet in equities, and they're relatively cheaper than U.S.
stocks.
His biggest idea for the moment: that superhigh-quality investments
- perennial market powerhouses like Johnson & Johnson, for
instance, pose little risk and have a solid record of churning out
big profits year after year - are a much better value than riskier
ones. Because right now what he calls the "risk premium" is "the
lowest you'll ever see in your lifetime." In other words, you're
not getting a discount to take risks with your money, as you
normally would. When this is the case, you should buy the big,
proven moneymakers instead of the fluctuating small-cap growth
stocks, because you're getting them at a bargain.
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