Internet age | Internet bubble | cab driver | GMO
The Market Wizard
by
Chris TaylorIf Grantham is as right about the environment as he was about the
Internet bubble, then we're all in a heap of trouble. In the late
'90s, when tech stocks were skyrocketing and everyone and their cab
driver were getting rich, he was practically yelling from the
rooftops about the coming bust that would wipe everyone out.
It cost his firm - big. As investors turned away from his
conservative philosophy and rode the bubble instead, GMO lost 45
percent of its assets under management at the time - but because of
market conditions, the company ended up sinking only 33 percent,
from $30 billion to $20 billion. Going against the conventional
wisdom "brought the firm to its knees," Grantham remembers. He and
his fellow managers were seen as fuddy-duddies who had lost their
way, old-fashioned cranks who just didn't get the realities of the
new Internet age.
But in 2000, when the stocks all came crashing down, his
value-oriented philosophy got a bittersweet vindication. While the
investors who had abandoned him were losing their shirts, those
who had stuck with him emerged from the bust relatively unscathed.
"We looked like heroes," he says. "But it was a pretty obvious bet.
By any standard measure, everything was screaming at you to
duck."
And that nicely sums up his approach to the markets. At any given
moment, some asset classes may be rocketing to bubblelike
proportions, and others may be out of favor and absolutely cheap.
So buy the bargain, and don't shovel your money into assets that
are already ridiculously expensive, because everything will
eventually revert back to the mean.
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