Of course, a futurist working for an
oil company would flesh out
each scenario in detail. Vivid scenarios are valuable because
thinking about them helps open executives' brains to a range of
possibilities, some disturbing, some exciting. They also provide
early warning signals that help the company see early on which
scenario is becoming reality. After this particular scenario
exercise, executives would likely begin scanning the news for
reports on hydrogen fuel and organized crime in
Russia. That
attentiveness might allow the oil company to see a little farther
into the future than its competitors.
While futurists agree that scenarios work, they don't approach
scenario-making the same way. Some say we should ponder four
competing scenarios at most, because beyond that, we're overwhelmed
with possibilities. Shostak advises creating scenarios that cover
the probable future (the one smart punters bet on), a possible
future (a dark horse entry), the preferable future (one we want,
even if it isn't likely), and the preventable future ("the future
we don't want," says Shostak).
But other futurists offer different mixes. Jay Arthur, a Denver
futurist, says it's always a solid tactic to include a worst-case
future. "That's a fast way to break out of mental ruts," he
explains.
And then there's the question of who should be involved in creating
scenarios in the first place. Washington, D.C., futurist John
Mahaffie tells his clients to bring in other stakeholders -
customers and vendors, for example - when contemplating the future,
because that's a way to stretch beyond company clichés.
One thing futurists do agree on: It's not the possibilities that
are the point, it's how you think about them. They scoff at the
idea of taking any scenario as gospel. Futurism's chief value isn't
necessarily that it forecasts tomorrow, says Joe Coates, a leading
business futurist, but that it makes people aware of their
underlying assumptions.