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Great Leap Foward (again)

by Chris Warren

And it has happened in the relative blink of the eye. In less than three decades, China has accomplished as much, and in some ways far more, in terms of transforming its rural, agriculturally based economy, than the United States did in twice the time, at least by some estimates. Historical comparisons are tricky, though, particularly considering the times in which each economic revolution took place; the United States was relatively early to industrialize, with industrial progress often coming hand in hand with new inventions in manufacturing, while China's tardiness has allowed it to adopt methods and approaches that had already proved successful.

Not surprisingly, this wholesale transformation has produced profound changes in the lives of the Chinese and, given the country's huge population and economic openness, in people all around the globe as well. Since the beginning of the reforms, Chinese GDP has grown tenfold, averaging about a 10 percent bump each year. And, by official estimates, the number of people in rural poverty has been reduced from 250 million in 1978 to 29 million in 2003. In 2005, China was the world's third-largest­ exporter, behind the United States and Germany, sending more than $750 billion worth of goods overseas.

With the liberalization of the economy, foreign investment has poured in - to the tune of more than half a trillion dollars since 1978. Just in Shanghai, the hub of the country's economic activity, there were 14,400 wholly foreign-owned companies at the end of 2003, as well as 13,000 more underwritten by foreign money. The proliferation of factories and economic opportunities in the cities has prompted the largest rural-to-­urban migration the world has ever seen.



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